My project
In the recent past, heavy rainfall in East Africa caused devastating floods and landslides throughout the region with hundreds of casualties and damage to housing, agriculture and infrastructure in the riparian countries of Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. This project aims to analyze the climatic variations and their effect on the hydrology of Lake Victoria and to project its future change under a range of climate and socioeconomic scenarios, including dynamic population and varying land use change pathways in the basin. The data to be used include historical and projected meteorological data (Rainfall, Temperature and Evaporation reconstructions); Hydrological data (Inflows and Outflows); Land Use Land Cover Data (Satellite Imagery and future projections). The first step is to install the Water Balance Model (WBM) and perform some test simulations. Secondly, evaluate the ability of a state-of-the-art WBM in simulating recent record-breaking flooding in the Lake Victoria basin as well as Lake low levels. Thirdly, project future lake extent under a suite of climate and socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, uncover the future risk in record-breaking lake flooding around Lake Victoria and quantify the people at risk from this hazard. Future projections will apply ISIMIP3 impact simulations which has a collection of historical global-scale climate impact simulations enabling the evaluation and improvement of impact models and detection and attribution of observed climate change impacts. Conclusions will be drawn from the analysis of future hydrological risks associated with these exposure changes by estimating the impacts of flooding around Lake Victoria on people.
My publications
Ogembo, V., Olala S., Ronoh E., Mukama E., Akinyi, G. (2025): Spatiotemporal Mapping of Seasonal Drought Dynamics in Kenya Using Remote Sensing and Combined Drought Indices for Climate Risk Planning. (Submitted to Springer Journal of Theoretical and Applied Climatology – Pre-print available)
Ogembo, V., Thiery, W., Pietroiusti, R., Akurut, M., Vanderkelen, I., and Akinyi, G. (2025): Flood Simulations using a Great Lakes Integrated Water Balance Model (GLIWaB Model) Based on Extreme Climatic Conditions over Lake Victoria Basin, East Africa. (Submitted to Journal of Hydrology Earth System Science, EGU)
Annika S., Afanan A., Ann G., Ogembo V., (2025). Addressing the policy-implementation gap and fostering participatory governance for integrated environmental management in the Yala Basin, Kenya. (Submitted for Publication)
My Training and conferences
EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria 27th April to 3rd May 2025 – Abstract accepted and Travel Logistics in place
European Researcher Night 2025, Barcelona, Spain
Symposium on Interwoven Waters – Policy on Nature Based Solutions for Lake Victoria.
My videos