Title of the project: HYDROCLIMATIC MODELING OF LAKE VICTORIA
Description of the project:
In the recent past, heavy rainfall in East Africa caused devastating floods and landslides throughout the region with hundreds of casualties and damage to housing, agriculture and infrastructure in the riparian countries of Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. This project aims to analyze the climatic variations and its effect on the hydrology of Lake Victoria and to project its future change under a range of climate and socioeconomic scenarios, including dynamic population and varying land use change pathways in the basin. The data to be used include historical and projected meteorological data (Rainfall, Temperature and Evaporation reconstructions); Hydrological data (Inflows and Outflows); Land Use Land Cover Data (Satellite Imagery and future projections). The first step is to install the Water Balance Model (WBM) and perform some test simulations. Secondly, evaluate the ability of a state-of-the-art WBM in simulating recent record-breaking flooding in the Lake Victoria basin as well as Lake low levels. Thirdly, project future lake extent under a suite of climate and socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, uncover the future risk in record-breaking lake flooding around Lake Victoria and quantify the people at risk from this hazard. Future projections will apply ISIMIP3 impact simulations which has a collection of historical global-scale climate impact simulations enabling the evaluation and improvement of impact models and detection and attribution of observed climate change impacts. Conclusions will be drawn from the analysis of future hydrological risks associated with these exposure changes by estimating the impacts of flooding around Lake Victoria on people.
Biography:
Vincent Ogembo is a Kenyan by birth and is a water resource engineer including climate science. His areas of interests include water resources, hydrological modeling, climate change and land use analysis. He obtained his Bachelors degree in Water & Environmental Engineering at JKUAT, Kenya (2015) and later graduated with MSc. Water Engineering including climate change at PAUWES, Algeria and Germany (2018). He also obtained his Doctor of Philosophy in Planning Water Resources at JOOUST, Kenya (2024). He was appointed by the Kenyan government (Lake Basin Development Authority, LBDA) as the deputy director in charge of planning, research and strategy (2020). In this capacity, he coordinated research work in the Kenyan Lake Victoria basin in partnership with other organizations and partners. He has served as Adjunct Lecturer at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology in the School of Spatial Planning and Natural Resource Management (2018-2024). In his research experience, he conducted hydrological modeling, climate change modeling, land use land cover analysis, spectral reflectance and algal bloom monitoring of some rivers and Lake Victoria.
- Nationality: KENYAN
- VUB department and supervisor: WATER & CLIMATE, PROMOTER IS PROF. WIM THIERY
- Starting date: 1ST JULY 2024
- Panel: Science and Engineering